The people of North Korea may as well be the poorest and most exploited people on Earth. North Korea has a de facto theocratic government, the strictest censorship of media, and a per capita income that exceeds few others in the world.
What do we care?
It would not have been so bad if they just kept things to themselves. However, North Korea loves to test its political clout by participating in international controversies. It has repeatedly fired missiles that grazed South Korean airspace. It has also been speculated that it is developing its own nuclear arsenal.
Recently, on March 2010, it allegedly sank a South Korean warship, resulting into 46 South Korean casualties Diplomacy is not an option anymore, as North Korea has made it clear for ages that they don’t like talking.
So why not just bomb them right away?
Let’s talk about who are the major stakeholders in this affair. The two Koreas, north and south, are obvious candidates. Europe will probably not wage war, as her population is just too old to pull triggers. Africa and the Middle East don’t mind other people’s businesses.
Thus, the only ones left are China and the United Sates. China is clearly on North Korea’s side based upon their purportedly common ideals. U.S., being the self-proclaimed advocate of democracy, is clearly against it.
Among the Koreas, U.S., and China, who will start it, just in case?
North Korea surely won’t do it. Even if they are stupid enough to be this obstinate since time immemorial, they simply do not have the population and the financial resources to wage a war against the US, a superpower. South Korea probably won’t catalyze it either. For one, they want reunification with the North, and they can’t do that if there will be no North to talk about.
Thus, we are now left with the two options: China or the U.S.
Globalization has made it difficult for the two to go into war, as their economic existence is dependent on each other. The U.S. can’t afford a war. It has an ailing economy as it registers severe budget deficits every year since 9-11. Furthermore, its international debt is the biggest in the galaxy. To exacerbate the scenario, its primary lender, the country that throws out a lifeline when Uncle Sam cries for help is — guess who — CHINA.
Meanwhile, China can’t spark a war either. It’s current economic growth relies heavily on a pegged currency. To minimize the rise in value of the yuan, it has to buoy other markets so that their currencies can stay at par to the yuan’s strength. The U.S., being the main consumer of Chinese exports, cannot be blatantly antagonized. Although China can live without the United States, she is still enjoying this wonderful honeymoon period of miraculous growth, something that might prematurely end if war breaks out.
Tags: international relations, political science